The final field for the 2025 Kentucky Derby is nearly set, as there is just one prep race remaining.
It is likely that we have already seen the 2025 Derby winner on at least one occasion already this season, and bettors will now be carefully going through each horse and their credentials ahead of the big race at Churchill Downs.
But, could the most obvious potential winner be hiding in plain sight, as Journalism has continued to gain momentum for trainer Michael McCarthy.
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Journalism Shows Class
The major prep race on the West Coast has been a significant race to follow when it comes to finding the winner of the Kentucky Derby, as the Santa Anita Derby has produced 17 victors at Churchill Downs.
Ten of the winners have won the race at Santa Anita, while seven have been beaten on their final start before the big race. However, if there was any horse to take out of the Santa Anita Derby this year, then it would be Journalism.
The three-year-old encountered no shortage of issues throughout the race, but he still showed his ability to put away two-year-old champion Citizen Bull to record his fourth straight win. It was an indicator of his battling qualities that he was able to survive a bump with Barnes, before regaining his composure to finish the strongest of the horses in the line-up.
That experience of having to battle could be a major benefit come Derby day at Churchill Downs, as all runners will likely need to overcome issues during the race. Journalism is now a winning machine for the McCarthy operation, having won four times on track. But, the biggest assessment of his championship credentials is still yet to come.
McCarthy Targeting First Derby Win
One of the major issues that some bettors may have when assessing Journalism’s chances in the Derby this year is the fact that McCarthy is yet to send out a winner of the Triple Crown races.
However, that could be countered by arguing that he does have a Triple Crown race win already by his name after landing the Preakness Stakes in 2021 with Rombauer.
McCarthy has also won countless races at the very highest level, which included a maiden success at the Breeders’ Cup in 2018 when City Of Light landed the Dirt Mile. McCarthy had won runner in the race last year, as Endlessly out-performed his 100/1 odds to finish a very respectable ninth.
The draw will be important this year, but a Derby winner has looked on the horizon for the progressive trainer for a long time now.
You can find more information about the Derby here: twinspires.com/kentuckyderby/
Top-Rated Three-Year-Old
A proven rating is essential when considering the Kentucky Derby field. Mystik Dan became the 28th Derby winner from 33 to have carried a Beyer Speed Figure of at least 95. That trend is well worth considering when assessing the Derby contenders once again this year.
Therefore, it will only enhance the Journalism’s chances, as the McCarthy three-year-old is the highest rated horse in the field based on the metric. Barnes is the second-highest rated horse based on the Speed Figures, but the Bob Baffert runner was well beaten by his likely Derby rival in the Santa Anita Derby.
Journalism’s lofty reputation is also indicated by the fact that he holds two of the top five speed figures recorded by horses aged three this year. The second of his entries is a Beyer rating of 102, which was achieved when winning the main prep race in California. Based on this metric, there are few potential sleeper picks that Journalism will encounter.
Baffert-trained Rodriguez looks good based on the stats, with his win in the Wood Memorial posting a career-best rating of 101. Sandman could be the danger for many. The three-year-old posted a very respectable rating of 99 when landing the G1 Arkansas Derby on his latest start. Other horses of note based on Beyer Speed Figures include American Promise, Sovereignty, River Thames, and Publisher.
Could a Japanese Raider Upset The Odds?
Outside of the U.S. challengers, there is a very interesting threat in the Derby this year from Japan. Luxor Café has won two races on the Japanese Road to the Kentucky Derby, and he is winning by extended distances every time that he is stepped up in trip.
A notable form line for the son of American Pharaoh can be taken from his win in the Hyacinth Stakes. Admire Daytona finished back in fourth in that race, and was over three lengths behind the Derby contender. However, the form has been boosted since, with the three-year-old finishing ahead of Heart Of Honor in the UAE Derby.
Unlike many recent Japanese Kentucky Derby hopes, Luxor Café is bringing substantial form to the table, and he is likely to take a lot of money in the betting for trainer Noriyuki Hori.